Paper 2 — Macroeconomic Performance and Policy

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2.3.1 — Measures of economic performance

  • 2.3.1.1

    Economic growth

    • a) The rate of change of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth and living standards.
    • b) Gross National Income (GNI) as an alternative measure of national income.
    • c) The distinction between the following measures of GDP/GNI: real and nominal; total and per capita; value and volume.
    • d) Comparison of GDP/GNI rates of growth between countries and over time.
    • e) The concept of Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) in making international comparisons of real GDP/GNI.
    • f) The distinction between positive economic growth rates and negative economic growth rates.
    • g) The concept of 'recession' as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
    • h) The limitations of using GDP/GNI to compare living standards between countries and over time.
    • i) National happiness and wellbeing: indicators of national happiness and wellbeing; the relationship between real incomes and subjective happiness.

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  • 2.3.1.2

    Inflation

    • a) The concepts of inflation, deflation and disinflation.
    • b) Calculating inflation using a consumer price index (CPI), including role of weighted basket of goods and services.
    • c) Limitations of the CPI as a measure of the rate of inflation.
    • d) The producer (wholesale) price index as an indicator of future trends in the rate of inflation.
    • e) Causes of inflation: demand-pull; cost-push; excessive growth of money supply.
    • f) Causes of deflation: falling aggregate demand (AD); increase in aggregate supply (AS); fall in the money supply.
    • g) Effects of inflation and deflation on: Consumers; the government; firms; workers; income distribution; investment; competitiveness; the current account of the balance of payments.

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  • 2.3.1.3

    Employment and unemployment

    • a) How unemployment is measured, using the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition.
    • b) The causes of unemployment: frictional; seasonal; structural; demand deficiency; real wage inflexibility.
    • c) The effects of unemployment on: consumers; firms; workers; public finances; resource utilisation and production possibility frontier; society.
    • d) The distinction between unemployment and underemployment.
    • e) The significance of changes in rates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity.
    • f) The significance of net migration for employment and unemployment.

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  • 2.3.1.4

    Balance of payments

    • a) Components of the balance of payments, with particular reference to the current account.
    • b) The distinction between deficits and surpluses in the trade in goods and services balance.
    • c) The distinction between balance of payments deficits and surpluses on the current account.

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2.3.2 — Aggregate demand (AD)

  • 2.3.2.1

    The characteristics of AD

    • a) The concept of AD.
    • b) Components of aggregate demand: C + I + G + (X−M) =; the AD curve.
    • c) The distinction between a movement along, and a shift of, the AD curve.

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  • 2.3.2.2

    Consumption (C)

    • a) Influences on consumption: disposable income; interest rates; consumer confidence; level of welfare payments; wealth effects; availability of credit.
    • b) The relationship between savings and consumption.
    • c) The definition of the 'savings ratio'.
    • d) Causes and effects of changes in the savings ratio.

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  • 2.3.2.3

    Investment (I)

    • a) The distinction between gross investment and net investment.
    • b) Influences on investment: the rate of economic growth; interest rates; business confidence and expectations; availability of credit; tax on company profits.
    • c) Government policy to promote investment: tax relief; subsidies; reductions on the rate of corporation tax.

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  • 2.3.2.4

    Government expenditure (G)

    • a) Influences on government expenditure: fiscal policy; the level of economic activity; correction of market failures; political priorities.

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  • 2.3.2.5

    Net trade balance (X−M)

    • a) The impact on the net trade balance of changes in: real income; the exchange rate; the state of the global economy; degree of protectionism; non-price factors.

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2.3.3 — Aggregate supply (AS)

  • 2.3.3.1

    The characteristics of AS

    • a) The concept of AS.
    • b) The AS curve.
    • c) The distinction between a movement along and a shift of the AS curve.

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  • 2.3.3.2

    Short-run AS (SRAS)

    • a) Factors influencing SRAS. Changes in: costs of raw materials and energy; exchange rates; tax rates.

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  • 2.3.3.3

    Long-run AS (LRAS)

    • a) Different shapes of AS curve: Keynesian; classical.
    • b) Factors influencing LRAS. Changes in: the state of technology; productivity; education and skills; government regulations and tax; demography and net migration; competition policy.

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2.3.4 — National income

  • 2.3.4.1

    National income

    • a) The circular flow of income.
    • b) The distinction between income and wealth.

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  • 2.3.4.2

    Injections and withdrawals

    • a) The distinction between injections and withdrawals.
    • b) Injections: investment; government expenditure; exports.
    • c) Withdrawals: savings; taxation; imports.
    • d) The impact of net injections into, and net withdrawals from, the circular flow of income.

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  • 2.3.4.3

    Equilibrium level of real output

    • a) The concept of equilibrium level of real national output.
    • b) Causes of changes in equilibrium real national output, as a result of shifts in AD and/or AS curves.

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  • 2.3.4.4

    The multiplier

    • a) The multiplier and multiplier process.
    • b) Marginal propensities and their effects on the multiplier: the marginal propensity to consume (MPC); the marginal propensity to save (MPS); the marginal propensity to tax (MPT); the marginal propensity to import (MPM).
    • c) Calculations of the multiplier using the formula 1/(1-MPC) and 1/MPW, where MPW = MPS + MPT + MPM.
    • d) The significance of the multiplier for shifts in AD and the level of economic activity.

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2.3.5 — Economic growth

  • 2.3.5.1

    Causes of growth

    • a) The distinction between actual and potential growth.
    • b) Actual growth caused by an increase in the components of AD.
    • c) The importance of international trade for export-led growth.
    • d) Causes of potential growth: domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI); innovation; growth in size of labour force, including net migration; the degree of competition.
    • e) The importance of productivity for the rate of economic growth.

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  • 2.3.5.2

    Benefits of growth

    • a) Possible benefits of growth: higher living standards; lower unemployment; increased profits for firms; higher levels of investment; increased tax revenues; improved public services.

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  • 2.3.5.3

    Costs of growth

    • a) Possible costs of growth: opportunity costs; environmental costs; balance of trade deficits; increased inequality; inflation.

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  • 2.3.5.4

    Output gaps

    • a) The difference between actual growth rate and long-term trends in growth.
    • b) The distinction between positive and negative output gaps.
    • c) Characteristics of positive and negative output gaps.
    • d) Difficulties of measuring output gaps.

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2.3.6 — Macroeconomic objectives and policies

  • 2.3.6.1

    Macroeconomic objectives

    • a) Economic growth.
    • b) Low and stable rate of inflation.
    • c) Low unemployment.
    • d) Balance of payments equilibrium on current account.
    • e) Balanced government budget.
    • f) Greater income equality.

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  • 2.3.6.2

    Possible conflicts between macroeconomic objectives

    • a) Inflation and unemployment, including the short-run Phillips curve.
    • b) Economic growth and protection of the environment.
    • c) Inflation and equilibrium on the current account of the balance of payments.
    • d) Economic growth and income equality.

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  • 2.3.6.3

    Macroeconomic supply-side policies

    • a) Supply-side policies designed to increase productivity, competition and incentives.
    • b) Free market policies: deregulation of product and labour markets; privatisation; reduction in taxation; changing the levels of welfare payments; cutting the costs of bureaucracy for firms.
    • c) Interventionist policies: investment in education, training and skills; incentives to encourage investment: tax incentive or subsidies; infrastructure investment; finance for business start-ups; regional policy.
    • d) Strengths and weaknesses of different supply-side policies.

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  • 2.3.6.4

    Macroeconomic demand-side policies

    • a) Demand-side policies: the distinction between fiscal and monetary policy; the distinction between reflationary and deflationary policies.
    • b) Fiscal policy instruments: government spending and taxation.
    • c) Monetary policy instruments: interest rates; asset purchases to increase money supply (quantitative easing); changes in lending criteria; reserve asset (liquidity) requirements.
    • d) The role of central banks in the conduct of monetary policy: implementation of monetary policy; achieving an inflation target; as banker to the government; as banker to the banks – lender of last resort.
    • e) Strengths and weaknesses of different demand-side policies.

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