The Replication Scorecard

Every status tag from the last three lessons, gathered into one lookup table, plus the three claims this course refuses to teach as if they still work.

7 min read

Module 1 promised this table twice — once in the opening lesson's methodology section, once at the end of Lever Three — and this is it. The three lever lessons taught each mechanism embedded in its causal story, which is the right way to learn a mechanism but a slow way to check one mid-deal. This lesson strips the story back out and leaves only the lookup: mechanism, lever, status, and the one line you need to remember about why.

Use it the way you'd use a nutrition label, not a footnote: before you rely on a tactic in a live deal, or before you let a tactic into copy, a deck, or a training doc, check its row here. If it's tagged CASUALTY, the tactic doesn't get taught, cited, or leaned on as if the mechanism behind it were real — full stop, regardless of how intuitively right it feels, because "feels right" is itself the heuristic-substitution failure mode this course spends Module 1 warning you about.

1. The full table

#MechanismLeverStatusNote
Reference dependence (the root fact underneath everything in Lever One)FoundationalROBUSTNot one of the 22 — the generator all six Lever One mechanisms sit on
§2Anchoring and adjustmentOneROBUSTIncidental or subliminal anchoring is weak; an implausible anchor is rejected outright
§9Framing effectsOneROBUSTFragile under scrutiny — a numerate buyer reframes back to neutral
§19Price precisionOneROBUSTContext-dependent; helps analytic purchases, can hurt affective ones
§1Loss aversion (the ~2x multiplier specifically)OneCONTINGENTReference dependence is robust; a fixed 2x coefficient is not (Gal & Rucker, 2018)
§8Endowment effectOneCONTINGENT, genuinely unsettledReal in the field; the "pure loss aversion" account is disputed (Plott & Zeiler, 2005)
§20Charm/left-digit pricing and bundlingOneCONTINGENTRobust as a demand effect, but signals "budget" — segment-dependent
§3ReciprocityTwoROBUSTObligation decays fast; transparently instrumental gifts backfire
§5Social proofTwoROBUSTDissimilar or negative proof actively backfires
§7Scarcity and urgencyTwoROBUSTThe most abused, most detectable lever in the library
§12Mere exposure / processing fluencyTwoROBUSTAmong the sturdiest effects in the whole library; inverted-U past a point
§15Status: prestige vs dominanceTwoROBUSTDominance wins short-term compliance, forfeits referral and renewal
§4Commitment and consistency (foot-in-the-door)TwoCONTINGENTReliable but modest; heavily moderated by delay, triviality, incentives
§6AuthorityTwoCONTINGENTReal, but domain-bounded, and combines badly with pressure
§21Decoy / asymmetric dominanceTwoCONTINGENT, fragileStrong with abstract lab stimuli, mostly disappears with real products
§17Ambiguity aversionThreeROBUSTThe deep engine behind "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM"
§18The buying committee / consensus problemThreeROBUST (industry-evidenced)Gartner and JOLT data, not a controlled lab result, but consistent and large-sample
§22The pain of payingThreeROBUSTDirect neural evidence (Knutson et al., 2007); decoupling that hides total cost breeds betrayal
§13Affect labeling (the real mechanism behind "tactical empathy")ThreeROBUSTNot the same claim as the oxytocin story below — read the difference carefully
§10Temporal discounting (present bias)ThreeROBUST behavior / CONTINGENT neural storyThe two-system "emotional brain vs rational brain" fMRI account is disputed
§16Narrative transportationThreeCONTINGENTReasonably supported; never a substitute for the quantified case a committee needs
§16Identifiable victim (the clean, singular-beats-statistics form specifically)ThreeCASUALTY / CONTINGENTFailed a 2023 preregistered replication; the underlying scope-insensitivity finding survives
§14Mirroring and rapport (the chameleon effect)ThreeCONTINGENT, overstatedModest and mostly unconscious; NLP-tier "match their breathing" claims have no support
§11Concurrent cognitive load (the real mechanism behind "decision fatigue")ThreeROBUSTNot the same claim as ego depletion below — read the difference carefully
§11Choice overload (the jam-display effect specifically)ThreeCONTINGENTNear-zero average effect across a large meta-analysis; strongly context-dependent

2. The three casualties to purge

Three claims show up across most mechanism-citing sales material, and this course removes all three rather than repeating them with a caveat attached:

"Willpower is a depletable tank — wear the buyer down, or close reps at the end of a long day." This is ego depletion, and it failed at scale: a 23-lab preregistered replication (Hagger & Chatzisarantis, 2016, N=2,141) found approximately zero effect, and a 36-lab replication designed with the original theorist's own input (Vohs et al., 2021, N=3,531) found d=0.06 — statistically null. What survives in its place is real and already in this library: concurrent cognitive load (§11) — a mind occupied by something else defaults to the easy option, which is resource competition, not a draining battery. Do not cite depletion. Do cite load.

"Build rapport to release oxytocin, the trust molecule." The founding trust-game result (Kosfeld et al., 2005) failed multiple independent replications; Nave, Camerer & McCullough (2015) found the effect not robust, and a large registered report subsequently found no meaningful effect of intranasal oxytocin on trusting behavior at all. What survives in its place is real and already in this library: affect labeling (§13) — literally naming a buyer's emotion measurably lowers their threat response, on a fully independent evidence base (Lieberman et al., 2007). Do not cite oxytocin. Do cite labeling.

"Prime them subconsciously — plant words or images below conscious notice and shift their behavior." The broader social-priming literature that this claim descends from collapsed under systematic replication attempts through the 2010s; the paradigm cases (words associated with old age making people walk more slowly, and similar) did not hold up. Unlike the two claims above, no numbered mechanism in this library replaces it, because there isn't a legitimate sales-relevant version of subliminal priming worth teaching — it's purged wholesale, not narrowed to a defensible core.

The shape to notice across all three: in two of the three cases, the underlying behavior people were reaching for — reduce the buyer's resistance, build genuine trust — is completely legitimate, and this library teaches a real mechanism that gets you there. What's false is specifically the story about why the behavior works. A course that keeps citing willpower or oxytocin to justify a real behavior is laundering dead science whether or not it means to, and the fix is never to drop the behavior — it's to name the mechanism that's actually driving it.

What carries forward

Module 2 gave you 22 mechanisms and, now, one table to check any of them against. Module 3 does something different with the same material: it takes the named frameworks you've probably already encountered — SPIN, Challenger, MEDDPICC, JOLT, and others — and shows that each one is a bundle of the mechanisms you just learned, wearing a brand name and a trademark training program. Once you can see the mechanisms inside a framework, you can use the parts that fit your deal without buying the certification, and you can tell in advance exactly where each framework will break.

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