E(aX+b) and Var(aX+b) for discrete random variables

~35 min · WST01 · 5.3

WST01 · 5.3 · 35 min

Adding a constant to every outcome of a random variable slides its mean sideways and leaves its spread completely untouched; multiplying by a constant does the opposite — it scales the mean by that constant once, and the spread by that constant twice, because variance is built from a squared deviation in the first place. Two separate WST01 exam sittings, three years apart, produced the identical one-line slip three times over: multiplying the variance by aa instead of a2a^2. This lesson exists because that error is not a memory lapse to drill away — it is what happens when a formula is memorised without ever being asked why the square is there.

Before you read on

Two or three questions on exactly what this lesson teaches. Being wrong here is fine — it's the fastest way to find out what to pay attention to next.

What's already on the formula sheet, and what you have to know cold

A discrete random variable XX takes a finite set of values, each with a probability, and everything in this lesson is built from exactly one operation: multiply each value by its probability, and add up. Written formally (Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables, "Statistics S1" section — verified in WST01-verified-facts.md §2a), that operation is E(X)=μ=xiP(X=xi)E(X) = \mu = \sum x_i P(X = x_i), and it generalises to any function gg of XX: E(g(X))=g(xi)P(X=xi)E(g(X)) = \sum g(x_i) P(X = x_i). Variance is defined the same way, applied to the squared distance from the mean: Var(X)=σ2=(xiμ)2P(X=xi)\text{Var}(X) = \sigma^2 = \sum(x_i - \mu)^2 P(X = x_i), which the booklet also gives in its computationally faster equivalent form, Var(X)=xi2P(X=xi)μ2\text{Var}(X) = \sum x_i^2 P(X = x_i) - \mu^2 — i.e. Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2.

Here is the fact worth knowing before you open the booklet in an exam, not after: all three of those formulae are printed in it. They are general-purpose, computational, and apply to any discrete random variable whatsoever — so Pearson gives them to you. What is NOT printed anywhere in the booklet is the shortcut for a linear transformation of XX: E(aX+b)=aE(X)+bE(aX + b) = aE(X) + b and Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)\text{Var}(aX + b) = a^2\text{Var}(X). The spec's own "Notation and formulae" box states the rule for the whole qualification bluntly (verified in WST01-verified-facts.md §2a): "Formulae that students are expected to know are given below and will not appear in the booklet" — and these two are on that expected-to-know list. The pattern is consistent everywhere it's been checked across S1: a general formula with a summation sign in it is on the sheet; a shortcut for simplifying one particular special case is not. If you can't derive it and can't recall it, there is nowhere in the exam room to look it up.

That gap is exactly why the next block exists. E(aX+b)=aE(X)+bE(aX+b) = aE(X)+b and Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)\text{Var}(aX+b) = a^2\text{Var}(X) are not two independent facts to memorise separately — they both fall directly out of E(g(X))=g(xi)P(X=xi)E(g(X)) = \sum g(x_i)P(X=x_i), the one formula that IS on the sheet, by substituting g(x)=ax+bg(x) = ax+b. Seeing that derivation once is what makes the a2a^2 in the variance version impossible to forget, because it stops being an arbitrary rule and becomes the consequence of what variance actually measures.

Mechanism

Why bb vanishes completely, and why aa gets squared and never bb does

Start from the one formula that's actually on the sheet: E(g(X))=g(xi)P(X=xi)E(g(X)) = \sum g(x_i)P(X=x_i). Set g(x)=ax+bg(x) = ax+b, the general linear transformation. Then E(aX+b)=(axi+b)P(X=xi)=axiP(X=xi)+bP(X=xi)E(aX+b) = \sum (ax_i+b)P(X=x_i) = a\sum x_i P(X=x_i) + b\sum P(X=x_i) — splitting the sum is legal because aa and bb are constants, not random, so they can be pulled outside the summation. The first piece is a×E(X)a \times E(X) by definition. The second piece is bb times P(X=xi)\sum P(X=x_i), and every discrete probability distribution's probabilities sum to exactly 1 (spec 5.2), so that piece is just bb. Hence E(aX+b)=aE(X)+bE(aX+b) = aE(X) + b: the mean transformation is a direct, one-line consequence of linearity, nothing more exotic than that. Now variance. Variance is not itself a sum of XX — it is defined as E[(Xμ)2]E\left[(X - \mu)^2\right], the average SQUARED distance from the mean, which is a different kind of object with the mean already baked into it. To find Var(aX+b)\text{Var}(aX+b), first find the mean of aX+baX+b: it's aE(X)+baE(X)+b, from the paragraph just derived. So the deviation of aX+baX+b from ITS OWN mean is (aX+b)(aE(X)+b)=aXaE(X)=a(XE(X))(aX+b) - (aE(X)+b) = aX - aE(X) = a(X - E(X)) — and the bb has already cancelled, before any squaring has even happened. Squaring that deviation is what variance is: [a(XE(X))]2=a2(XE(X))2\left[a(X-E(X))\right]^2 = a^2(X-E(X))^2. Take the expectation of both sides and a2a^2, being a constant, pulls straight back out: Var(aX+b)=a2E[(XE(X))2]=a2Var(X)\text{Var}(aX+b) = a^2 E\left[(X-E(X))^2\right] = a^2\text{Var}(X). Read the two derivations side by side and the whole trap dissolves into one sentence: bb is gone from the variance formula because it was gone from the DEVIATION before the squaring step ever started — a pure shift moves every value and the mean by exactly the same amount, so the gap between them, which is all variance ever measures, is untouched. And aa comes out squared, not because someone chose to square it, but because variance is defined as an average of a SQUARED quantity, and squaring is what turns "the spread got multiplied by aa" into "the *squared* spread got multiplied by aa, twice."

The same square, wearing a different costume, in a different part of the paper

This "forgot to square" mechanism is not confined to this one spec point. When a WST01 question uses coding — replacing raw data with a scaled-and-shifted version to make arithmetic manageable (spec 2.2, not 5.3, a different part of the paper entirely) — the exact same squaring rule governs how the coded variance decodes back. A verified real example (Jun 2022 Q3(e), coded log-length data): "correct answers for variance of W... were much rarer, with candidates not decoding, commonly including the assumed mean of 255, scaling using 0.5 instead of 0.520.5^2, or knowing they should use 0.520.5^2 but multiplying instead of dividing." Notice this is the identical mechanism from a different angle — decoding runs Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)\text{Var}(aX+b) = a^2\text{Var}(X) in reverse, so recovering Var(X)\text{Var}(X) from a known Var(aX+b)\text{Var}(aX+b) means DIVIDING by a2a^2, and both halves of that (a2a^2, and division rather than multiplication) are exactly where that report records candidates going wrong.

The practical point: this is not a one-off trap tied to one question format. It is a single underlying fact — a linear transformation scales variance by the square of its multiplicative constant, and by nothing at all from its additive constant — that the exam can present forwards (given XX, find Var(aX+b)\text{Var}(aX+b), as the rest of this lesson does) or backwards (given a transformed variance, recover the original, or find the unknown constant that produced it, as the worked-chain below does). Knowing the mechanism, rather than one memorised direction of it, is what survives both.

Worked, in full

Working backwards: finding aa from two variances alone — using the real numbers a WST01 examiner report quotes

  1. 01

    Read the givens and identify the ONE formula that connects them. A discrete random variable XX has Var(X)=4.14\text{Var}(X) = 4.14. It is transformed by Y=aX+bY = aX + b, where a>0a > 0, and Var(Y)=66.24\text{Var}(Y) = 66.24. Notice immediately that bb has already dropped out of the problem before any arithmetic starts — it isn't given, and it doesn't need to be, because Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)\text{Var}(aX+b) = a^2\text{Var}(X) has no bb in it at all. (VERIDIAN-original framing: an examiner report preserves only the arithmetic below, not this surrounding stem — see the flag block at the end of this lesson.)

    Earns: Sets up the correct structure, Var(Y)=a2×Var(X)\text{Var}(Y) = a^2 \times \text{Var}(X), rather than reaching for the mean-transformation formula or a bare a×Var(X)a \times \text{Var}(X).

  2. 02

    Substitute the two known variances into that structure: a2×4.14=66.24a^2 \times 4.14 = 66.24. This exact line is where the real, quoted error happens — a WST01 examiner report records the most common wrong version of this very line as a×4.14=66.24a \times 4.14 = 66.24 (Jun 2024, Q2(c)) — the coefficient left unsquared, one character different on the page and a completely different answer at the end.

    Earns: The correct equation. (The wrong version, a×4.14=66.24a \times 4.14 = 66.24, solves to a=16a = 16 directly — a plausible-looking clean number, which is part of why the error is easy to miss: it doesn't look broken.)

  3. 03

    Solve for a2a^2: a2=66.24÷4.14=16a^2 = 66.24 \div 4.14 = 16.

    Earns: Correct division. Note this is the SAME number, 16, that the wrong method in stage 2 reaches directly as its final answer for aa — the coincidence is exactly what makes this error survivable-looking on the page: both routes produce a clean integer, so a clean answer alone is no evidence the right formula was used.

  4. 04

    Take the square root and apply the given condition. a2=16a^2 = 16 gives a=±4a = \pm 4 in general, but the question states a>0a > 0, so a=4a = 4 — not a=16a = 16, the number the forgot-to-square path stopped at.

    Earns: The correct final value, using the stated sign condition to select the branch — the same discipline as excluding an unsupported root on any other constrained-parameter question.

  5. 05

    Check without redoing the calculation: 42×4.14=16×4.14=66.244^2 \times 4.14 = 16 \times 4.14 = 66.24. ✓ Matches the given Var(Y)\text{Var}(Y) exactly.

    Earns: Nothing on the mark scheme — but it is the one line that would have caught a=16a = 16 as wrong before it was written as a final answer: 162×4.14=1059.8416^2 \times 4.14 = 1059.84, nowhere near 66.2466.24.

Source — Examiner report, Jun 2024

"the most common error seen was a × 4.14 = 66.24 rather than a² × 4.14 = 66.24"

Complete it yourself

Complete the chain — finding pp given Var(X)=6.25\text{Var}(X) = 6.25 and Var(pX+q)=25\text{Var}(pX+q) = 25, p>0p > 0

  1. 01

    A discrete random variable XX has Var(X)=6.25\text{Var}(X) = 6.25. It is transformed to W=pX+qW = pX + q, where p>0p > 0 and qq is some constant. Given that Var(W)=25\text{Var}(W) = 25, set up the equation connecting pp and the two known variances — remembering that qq plays no part in it at all.

  2. 02

    p2×6.25=25p^2 \times 6.25 = 25.

Marked, line by line

A discrete random variable XX has the probability distribution shown below. (VERIDIAN-original question and distribution — not a reproduction of any past-paper question; see the closing flag block.) xx: 1, 2, 3, 4 P(X=x)P(X=x): 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.2 (a) Show that E(X)=2.7E(X) = 2.7. (2) (b) Find Var(X)\text{Var}(X). (3) (c) The random variable YY is defined by Y=5X3Y = 5X - 3. Find E(Y)E(Y) and Var(Y)\text{Var}(Y). (4)

9 marks available

(a)2 marks

  1. 01

    E(X)=xP(X=x)=1(0.1)+2(0.3)+3(0.4)+4(0.2)E(X) = \sum x P(X=x) = 1(0.1) + 2(0.3) + 3(0.4) + 4(0.2)

    Method mark for a correct attempt at Σx P(X=x), using the given probabilities against the correct x-values.

    M1
  2. 02

    =0.1+0.6+1.2+0.8=2.7= 0.1 + 0.6 + 1.2 + 0.8 = 2.7 (as required)

    Accuracy mark, and this part is a 'show that' with the answer printed — the full addition line has to be visible, not just the final total. The paper-wide 'show that' discipline is documented directly inside this very section of the spec (Jan 2023 Q3(a) and Q4(i)(a), both Discrete Random Variables questions, are cited among the cross-cutting 'show that' evidence): writing '= 2.7' with no working shown is exactly the failure pattern examiner reports describe, whatever the topic.

    A1

(b)3 marks

  1. 101

    E(X2)=x2P(X=x)=12(0.1)+22(0.3)+32(0.4)+42(0.2)E(X^2) = \sum x^2 P(X=x) = 1^2(0.1) + 2^2(0.3) + 3^2(0.4) + 4^2(0.2)

    Method mark for a correct attempt at Σx²P(X=x) — squaring the x-values, not the probabilities, and using the same distribution as part (a).

    M1
  2. 102

    =0.1+1.2+3.6+3.2=8.1= 0.1 + 1.2 + 3.6 + 3.2 = 8.1

    Accuracy mark for E(X²) = 8.1.

    A1
  3. 103

    Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2=8.12.72=8.17.29=0.81\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = 8.1 - 2.7^2 = 8.1 - 7.29 = 0.81

    Accuracy mark, dependent on the M mark above. 2.7 has to be squared here, not doubled or left as-is — a distinct squaring step from the one this lesson's trap is named for, but the same discipline: read '[E(X)]²' as an instruction, not a decoration.

    A1

(c)4 marks

  1. 201

    E(Y)=E(5X3)=5E(X)3=5(2.7)3E(Y) = E(5X - 3) = 5E(X) - 3 = 5(2.7) - 3

    Method mark for using E(aX+b) = aE(X)+b with a = 5, b = −3.

    M1
  2. 202

    =13.53=10.5= 13.5 - 3 = 10.5

    Accuracy mark, correct answer only.

    A1
  3. 203

    Var(Y)=Var(5X3)=52×Var(X)=25×0.81\text{Var}(Y) = \text{Var}(5X-3) = 5^2 \times \text{Var}(X) = 25 \times 0.81

    Method mark for using Var(aX+b) = a²Var(X) with the coefficient correctly squared. This is the mark the common wrong path below fails to earn: using 5 instead of 5² is not a slip inside a correct method, it is the wrong formula, and the method mark reflects that.

    M1
  4. 204

    =20.25= 20.25

    Accuracy mark, dependent on the M mark directly above.

    A1

In your own words

In one sentence: why does adding a constant bb never change Var(X)\text{Var}(X) at all, while multiplying by a constant aa changes it by a factor of a2a^2 rather than just aa?

Named traps

coefficient-not-squared-in-variance
The headline trap of this whole spec point, confirmed independently at least three times across three years — the same underlying mechanism, never squaring the multiplicative constant when finding Var(aX+b): "others forgot to square [a constant] when subtracting" (Jan 2021, Q4(b–d)); "the most common error seen was a × 4.14 = 66.24 rather than a² × 4.14 = 66.24" (Jun 2024, Q2(c)); "common errors included incorrect use of variance expressions and failure to realise that Var(aX) = a²Var(X)" (Jun 2024, Q3(d) — the same paper, a second independent instance). The defence is the derivation above, not repetition: the square is there because variance is defined as an average of a squared deviation, and a pure scaling of X scales that deviation by a, which the squaring then squares again.
e-x-squared-confused-with-var-x
Confirmed on the same question that produced the "forgot to square" trap above: "some still think E(X²) = Var(X)" (Jan 2021, Q4(b–d)). These are two different objects computed from two different formulae — E(X²) = Σx²P(X=x) is a raw second moment; Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]² is that moment with the SQUARE OF THE MEAN subtracted back off. Skipping the subtraction step doesn't just lose a mark on a routine question — reused inside an aX+b question, it feeds the wrong number into everything that follows it.
formulae-not-known-from-memory
"others did not know the formulae for E(aX+b) and Var(aX+b)" (Jan 2021, Q4(b–d)) — and this is worth taking literally rather than as a synonym for the other two traps above. E(aX+b) and Var(aX+b) are explicitly NOT printed anywhere in the Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables booklet (verified in WST01-verified-facts.md §2a, against the spec's own statement that formulae "students are expected to know... will not appear in the booklet"). A student who forgets the base formulae for E(X) and Var(X) can look them up; a student who forgets the aX+b shortcuts has nowhere in the exam room to check.

Retrieval — with feedback on every choice

Question 1
2 marks

A discrete random variable XX has E(X)=6E(X) = 6 and E(X2)=40E(X^2) = 40. A student writes: "Var(X)=E(X2)=40\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) = 40." What is wrong with this, and what is the correct value of Var(X)\text{Var}(X)?

Question 2
2 marks

A discrete random variable XX has E(X)=12E(X) = 12 and Var(X)=5\text{Var}(X) = 5. Given that Y=3X4Y = 3X - 4, find E(Y)E(Y) and Var(Y)\text{Var}(Y).

Question 3
2 marks

A discrete random variable XX has Var(X)=9\text{Var}(X) = 9. Student 1 finds Var(3X)\text{Var}(3X); Student 2 finds Var(3X)\text{Var}(-3X). Which statement is correct?

Question 4
3 marks

A company pays each employee a monthly bonus, in dollars, B=50N20B = 50N - 20, where NN is the random number of new clients that employee brings in that month. Records show E(N)=4E(N) = 4 and Var(N)=1.5\text{Var}(N) = 1.5. Find E(B)E(B) and Var(B)\text{Var}(B).

Question 5
1 mark

Which of the following would you need to recall from memory in a WST01 exam, rather than being able to look up in the Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables booklet?

Reference — not a study method, a lookup
  • E(aX+b) = aE(X) + b — NOT in the formula booklet. Memorise it.
  • Var(aX+b) = a²Var(X) — no b anywhere; a is always squared, whatever its sign.
  • Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]² IS in the booklet — only the aX+b shortcuts aren't.
  • A negative variance is never a right answer — if you get one, you forgot to square a.
  • Documented WST01 examiner-report error, 3 times across 3 years: multiplying variance by a instead of a².

Not affiliated with or endorsed by Pearson Edexcel. The spec guidance quote, the formula-booklet contents (which formulae are printed versus expected from memory), and every examiner-report quotation in this lesson — the three-instance 'forgot to square' pattern at Jan 2021 Q4(b–d) and Jun 2024 Q2(c)/Q3(d), the E(X²)-confused-with-Var(X) misconception at Jan 2021 Q4(b–d), the 'did not know the formulae' note at the same reference, and the coding parallel at Jun 2022 Q3(e) — are transcribed from WST01-verified-facts.md, itself checked against the primary Pearson documents; there is no prior WST01 material in this repo to have carried an error over from. Exactly one numeric scenario in this lesson uses real, quoted examiner-report figures: the worked-chain's Var(X) = 4.14 and Var(Y) = 66.24 are the actual numbers the Jun 2024 Q2(c) report quotes; the surrounding question stem is reconstructed around them, since the report preserves only that one line of arithmetic, not the rest of the original question. Every other number in this lesson — the prequestion scenarios, the marked-solution's probability distribution and its E(X)=2.7/Var(X)=0.81/E(Y)=10.5/Var(Y)=20.25 chain, the chain-drill, and every MCQ scenario — is VERIDIAN-original, built and hand-checked to exercise the documented trap honestly rather than reproduce a real Pearson question. The M1/A1/B1 mark allocations attached to those original questions are modelled on the general marking conventions verified in WST01-verified-facts.md §4 (what M, A and B marks mean, the cao rule, the ft rule) — not transcribed from a real WST01 mark scheme, which for a question nobody at Pearson wrote does not exist.

Question 12 marks

A discrete random variable XX has E(X)=6E(X) = 6 and E(X2)=40E(X^2) = 40. A student writes: "Var(X)=E(X2)=40\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) = 40." What is wrong with this, and what is the correct value of Var(X)\text{Var}(X)?

  • The student has confused E(X2)E(X^2) with Var(X)\text{Var}(X); correctly, Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2=4036=4\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = 40 - 36 = 4

    Correct, and this is a documented, named confusion — a real WST01 examiner report records exactly this: "some still think E(X²) = Var(X)" (Jan 2021, Q4(b–d)). E(X²) is a raw second moment; Var(X) is that moment with the square of the mean subtracted off.

  • BNothing is wrong — E(X2)E(X^2) and Var(X)\text{Var}(X) are the same thing by definition

    This is the misconception itself, stated as fact. If they were the same, the formula booklet would only need to print one of them — instead it prints Var(X) = E(X²) − μ² specifically because the two differ by [E(X)]², which is nonzero here (6² = 36).

  • CThe student needs to subtract E(X)E(X) without squaring it: Var(X)=E(X2)E(X)=406=34\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - E(X) = 40 - 6 = 34

    Half right: something does need subtracting, but it's [E(X)]², the square of the mean, not the mean itself. The correct formula is Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]², and dropping the square here is the same family of omission as forgetting to square the coefficient in Var(aX+b) — a squaring step skipped, just attached to a different formula.

  • DVar(X)=[E(X)]2=36\text{Var}(X) = [E(X)]^2 = 36

    This drops E(X²) from the formula entirely and keeps only the squared mean — the reverse mistake from option C, and neither term alone is the answer. Both E(X²) and [E(X)]² are required, and it's their DIFFERENCE that gives Var(X).

Traps tested: E x squared confused with var x · E x not squared in variance formula · E x squared term dropped

Question 22 marks

A discrete random variable XX has E(X)=12E(X) = 12 and Var(X)=5\text{Var}(X) = 5. Given that Y=3X4Y = 3X - 4, find E(Y)E(Y) and Var(Y)\text{Var}(Y).

  • E(Y)=32E(Y) = 32, Var(Y)=45\text{Var}(Y) = 45

    Correct. E(Y) = 3(12) − 4 = 32. Var(Y) = 3² × 5 = 9 × 5 = 45 — the coefficient squared, and the −4 contributing nothing at all to the variance.

  • BE(Y)=32E(Y) = 32, Var(Y)=3(5)4=11\text{Var}(Y) = 3(5) - 4 = 11

    The mean's formula (which does carry a −b) has been applied to variance by mistake, and the coefficient wasn't squared either: 3(5) − 4 = 11, not the correct 45. Variance has no b term, present or absent, squared or not.

  • CE(Y)=32E(Y) = 32, Var(Y)=3(5)=15\text{Var}(Y) = 3(5) = 15

    The coefficient was left unsquared: 3 × 5 = 15, not 3² × 5 = 45. This is the exact mechanism a WST01 examiner report names directly at Jun 2024 Q2(c) and Q3(d) — the single most common error attached to this formula.

  • DE(Y)=32E(Y) = 32, Var(Y)=9(5)4=41\text{Var}(Y) = 9(5) - 4 = 41

    The coefficient WAS squared correctly (9 × 5 = 45) — but then the −4 was subtracted anyway, as though variance carried a b term the way the mean does. It doesn't: Var(aX+b) = a²Var(X), full stop, with nothing left over to add or subtract.

Traps tested: Variance treated like mean transformation · Coefficient not squared in variance · Additive constant included in variance

Question 32 marks

A discrete random variable XX has Var(X)=9\text{Var}(X) = 9. Student 1 finds Var(3X)\text{Var}(3X); Student 2 finds Var(3X)\text{Var}(-3X). Which statement is correct?

  • Both get 8181 — variance depends on a2a^2, and 32=(3)2=93^2 = (-3)^2 = 9, so the sign of aa never matters for spread

    Correct. Var(3X) = 3² × 9 = 81 and Var(−3X) = (−3)² × 9 = 81, identically. Squaring erases the sign completely — a transformation and its exact mirror image always produce the same spread, whatever they do to the mean.

  • BStudent 1 gets 2727, Student 2 gets 27-27

    Forgetting to square gives a × Var(X) = 3 × 9 = 27 for Student 1, and carrying the sign through unsquared for Student 2 gives −27 — a negative variance, which is impossible by definition (variance is an average of squared, hence non-negative, deviations). A negative result here is itself proof a step was skipped, not a valid second case.

  • CStudent 2's variance really is negative, because the transformation reflects the distribution

    Reflecting a distribution can flip the sign of its mean's displacement from zero, but variance is defined by a SQUARED deviation and is never negative, for any transformation whatsoever. "Reflected" changes which direction values sit relative to the mean; it does not, and cannot, make spread itself negative.

  • DThey can't be compared without knowing E(X)E(X)

    Var(aX+b) = a²Var(X) depends only on a and Var(X) — E(X) plays no role in it whatsoever, which is exactly why the additive constant b (which DOES need E(X) for the mean formula) drops out of the variance formula entirely.

Traps tested: Coefficient not squared in variance · Variance assumed signed · Unnecessary mean dependency assumed

Question 43 marks

A company pays each employee a monthly bonus, in dollars, B=50N20B = 50N - 20, where NN is the random number of new clients that employee brings in that month. Records show E(N)=4E(N) = 4 and Var(N)=1.5\text{Var}(N) = 1.5. Find E(B)E(B) and Var(B)\text{Var}(B).

  • E(B)=180E(B) = 180, Var(B)=3750\text{Var}(B) = 3750

    Correct. E(B) = 50(4) − 20 = 180. Var(B) = 50² × 1.5 = 2500 × 1.5 = 3750 — the $20 fixed adjustment changes every employee's bonus by the same fixed amount and so changes nothing about how much bonuses VARY between employees; only the $50-per-client rate, squared, does that.

  • BE(B)=180E(B) = 180, Var(B)=50(1.5)20=55\text{Var}(B) = 50(1.5) - 20 = 55

    The mean's formula has been reused for variance: 50 × 1.5 − 20 = 55. Var(aX+b) has neither an unsquared a nor any b in it — both features of this working are wrong at once.

  • CE(B)=180E(B) = 180, Var(B)=50(1.5)=75\text{Var}(B) = 50(1.5) = 75

    The coefficient 50 was left unsquared: 50 × 1.5 = 75, not 50² × 1.5 = 3750 — a factor of 50 out, which on a real payroll figure is the difference between a rounding error and a spreadsheet somebody should have double-checked.

  • DE(B)=180E(B) = 180, Var(B)=2500(1.5)20=3730\text{Var}(B) = 2500(1.5) - 20 = 3730

    The coefficient was squared correctly (2500 × 1.5 = 3750) but the −20 was then subtracted anyway. Variance has no b term to subtract, present or absent — the correct value is 3750, full stop.

Traps tested: Variance treated like mean transformation · Coefficient not squared in variance · Additive constant included in variance

Question 51 mark

Which of the following would you need to recall from memory in a WST01 exam, rather than being able to look up in the Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables booklet?

  • Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)\text{Var}(aX + b) = a^2\text{Var}(X)

    Correct. This is explicitly NOT in the booklet — verified against the spec's own statement that formulae "students are expected to know... will not appear in the booklet," and confirmed directly by checking the booklet's own Statistics S1 section, which prints the general definitions but not this shortcut.

  • BVar(X)=xi2P(X=xi)μ2\text{Var}(X) = \sum x_i^2 P(X=x_i) - \mu^2

    This IS printed in the booklet's Statistics S1 section — it's a general, computational definition that applies to any discrete random variable, which is exactly the kind of formula the booklet supplies.

  • CE(X)=xiP(X=xi)E(X) = \sum x_i P(X=x_i)

    This is also printed in the booklet, for the same reason: it's the general definition, not a special-case shortcut.

  • DE(g(X))=g(xi)P(X=xi)E(g(X)) = \sum g(x_i) P(X=x_i)

    This general form is printed in the booklet too — it's the formula the two aX+b shortcuts are actually derived FROM, which is precisely why it's provided and they aren't: Pearson gives you the general tool and expects the specific simplification to be your own knowledge.

Traps tested: Base var formula assumed unlisted · Base e formula assumed unlisted · General e g x formula assumed unlisted

Practice this for real

This site teaches the mechanism; the exam is sat on Pearson's own real questions. Go find and attempt these yourself — nothing here substitutes for actually sitting a timed paper.

Examiner report
Jun 2024 · Q2(c) — cited directly in this lesson
Pearson's official past-papers portal

Select International Advanced Level → Mathematics → any series, then look for WST01.

Statistics 1 · progress saved in this browser · sign in to sync across devices

Up next

The Normal distribution — standardisation, table precision, and conditional probability

Every one of the five examiner reports checked for this course treats one skill on this topic as the most discriminating part of the paper — and it is not really a Normal-distribution skill at all. It is whether you notice, underneath a completely ordinary standardisation, that the question has quietly become a conditional probability — and by the time you are three lines into the wrong calculation, the diagram that would have shown you is nowhere on the page.

65 min